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SAKE SURVEY AMONGST ECONOMISTS - JANUARY 2004

Sake, that appears in Die Burger, Beeld and Volksblad, published on the 18th of February 2004 the survey that was done amongst 30 economists towards the end of January. The table below shows information as on the 28th of January and is the information that economists had available when they formed their forecasts.

The variables shown in red are the variables that came out during that week. It is with this information in the table as background that views were taken on the key variables.

The table below shows the consensus, as well as the maximum, minimum and standard deviation of each of the 12 forecasted variables.

PCE refers to Private Consumption Expenditure and GDP refers to Gross Domestic Product. The current account refers to the current account of the balance of payments and is expressed in billion rand. For the exchange rates and interest rates as well as the gold price the forecasted value is the average value in the fourth quarter.

We can next look in more detail at the forecasts on the exchange rates.

The histogram below shows the distribution of the rand per dollar exchange rate of the forecasters.

The median forecast is 7.61 and most of the forecasts are between 7.00 to 8.00. 

The histogram below shows the distribution of the forecasts for the rand per euro exchange rate.

The median of the forecasts is 9.54 and most of the forecasts are between 9.00 and 10.00.

Because the forecasters give a rand per dollar as well as a rand per euro view it is possible to calculate the dollar per euro view of the forecasters. The histogram below shows the distribution of the dollar per euro view of the forecasters.

The median of the forecasts is 1.28 and most of the forecasts are between 1.20 and 1.35.

The graph below shows the relationship between the rand per dollar view and the dollar per euro view of the forecasters. The relationship shows that the rand strengthens against the dollar when the dollar is itself weak.

Also of importance is the relationship between the dollar per euro and the gold price in dollar. The graph below shows the relationship.

There exists as can be expected an inverse relationship between the gold price in dollar and the dollar itself. A weaker dollar results in a higher gold price.

The last two graphs show the interaction between the exchange rate and the gold price as well as between the rand per dollar and the dollar per euro as presented by the forecasters is in line with what one would have expected.

Updated 4 March 2004 

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